Bayesian estimates of covariance components between lactation curve parameters and disease liability in Danish Holstein cows.

In the present work, covariance components for milk yield and disease liability were estimated with bivariate random regression test-day sire models using a Bayesian approach and implemented via the Gibbs sampler. The data consist of 8075 first-parity Danish Holstein (DH) cows, from 1259 sires, performing in 57 herds from 1992 to 1997. Treatments associated with five different type of diseases were pooled into a single general disease liability for each cow. Two models were fitted to the data. First, using a bivariate model, milk yield is modeled via a random regression, and disease liability via a repeatablility model. Second, using a bivariate model, both milk yield and disease liability are modeled using random regressions. A comparison based on a Bayes factor provides very strong support for the bivariate random regression model. Posterior means of heritabilities for each of the traits were estimated for five different points in time throughout lactation. Across models, heritabilities for milk yield are lowest in the beginning of the lactation (0.19) and highest at the end of the lactation (0.35). Posterior means of heritabilities of disease liability range from 0.04 to 0.10 for test days, and is equal to 0.20 for the whole lactation. Heritability of persistency measures estimated from the two models are 0.20 and 0.21. Estimates of posterior means of genetic correlations between single test-day milk yield and single test-day disease liability are in the range of 0.31 to 0.57. The estimates of posterior mean and of the 95% posterior interval of the genetic correlation between persistency and (total) disease liability using the model with the highest posterior probability are -0.12 and (-0.44; 0.20), respectively. Even though the largest proportion of the posterior probability mass is spread along negative values of the correlation (indicating that individuals with a flatter lactation curve tend to have lower disease liability), a value of zero of the genetic correlation falls comfortably within the 95% posterior interval. Thus the prospects of reducing incidence of disease by manipulating persistency as defined in this work remain inconclusive.